September conditions improve slightly
Russia’s manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index rose to 49.8 points in September from 48.8 in August, S&P Global’s survey showed on Oct 1, 2026. Readings below 50 indicate deteriorating business conditions; September’s decline was less pronounced than August’s.
New orders fell for a second month as respondents cited prices and competition. Export orders contracted at their fastest rate since May 2022. Output continued to fall, although its decline slowed. Labour and workload indicators also weakened:
- Employment declined for a tenth month, with cuts fastest since May.
- Backlogs fell at their slowest rate in six months.
Input-cost inflation eased to a three-month low despite supplier-price and exchange-rate pressures. Selling-price inflation was slowest since June. Purchasing activity declined fastest since April.
Manufacturers’ expectations for the next 12 months improved, supported by hopes of stronger demand and new customers.
August’s return to contraction
In August, the PMI had dropped from July’s 50.7 to 48.8, marking the first deterioration in three months. New orders weakened amid reduced customer purchasing power. Production contracted for the first time since April, while export-order losses were the second fastest since September 2025.
Fuel and imported goods became more expensive, pushing input inflation to its fastest since January. Purchasing declined after three months of growth. Supplier delivery times lengthened as respondents reported logistical problems and fuel shortages.
Unfinished work continued to decrease, and manufacturers reported sufficient capacity for incoming orders. Confidence nevertheless improved, with respondents associating their production expectations with stronger demand and investment in marketing.
July’s expansion and price pressures
July’s manufacturing PMI had reached 50.7, up from 50.3 in June, with the strongest overall expansion in 18 months. Production increased for a third successive month and grew fastest since January 2025. New orders rose for a second month, at their quickest pace since May 2025. Domestic demand supported those gains, while export orders declined at their fastest rate since October 2022.
Employment decreased as firms left voluntary departures unfilled. The rate of job shedding eased to a four-month low. Backlogs contracted for an eighteenth successive month as manufacturers reported adequate capacity. Input-cost inflation accelerated to its strongest since January 2026, reflecting fuel shortages, transport problems and higher supplier prices. Selling-price inflation reached a six-month high as companies increased their output charges.
Supplier delays were the longest since February 2025. Business confidence fell to its lowest since May 2020, with firms citing customer uncertainty and stronger competition.
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